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<\/p>\nWashington, DC…The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was broad-based, with increases in the indexes for energy, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles among the larger contributors. The energy index rose 4.8 percent over the month, as the gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major energy component indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.9 percent as the index for food at home rose 1.0 percent. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average<\/p>\n
Seasonally adjusted changes from
\n preceding month
\n Un-
\n adjusted
\n 12-mos.
\n Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. ended
\n 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Oct.
\n 2021<\/p>\n
All items……………… .8 .6 .9 .5 .3 .4 .9 6.2
\n Food…………………. .4 .4 .8 .7 .4 .9 .9 5.3
\n Food at home…………. .4 .4 .8 .7 .4 1.2 1.0 5.4
\n Food away from home (1).. .3 .6 .7 .8 .4 .5 .8 5.3
\n Energy……………….. -.1 .0 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.3 4.8 30.0
\n Energy commodities……. -1.4 -.6 2.6 2.3 2.7 1.3 6.2 49.5
\n Gasoline (all types)…. -1.4 -.7 2.5 2.4 2.8 1.2 6.1 49.6
\n Fuel oil (1)………… -3.2 2.1 2.9 .6 -2.1 3.9 12.3 59.1
\n Energy services………. 1.5 .7 .2 .8 1.1 1.2 3.0 11.2
\n Electricity…………. 1.2 .3 -.3 .4 1.0 .8 1.8 6.5
\n Utility (piped) gas
\n service………….. 2.4 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 2.7 6.6 28.1
\n All items less food and
\n energy…………….. .9 .7 .9 .3 .1 .2 .6 4.6
\n Commodities less food and
\n energy commodities…. 2.0 1.8 2.2 .5 .3 .2 1.0 8.4
\n New vehicles………… .5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 9.8
\n Used cars and trucks…. 10.0 7.3 10.5 .2 -1.5 -.7 2.5 26.4
\n Apparel…………….. .3 1.2 .7 .0 .4 -1.1 .0 4.3
\n Medical care
\n commodities (1)…… .6 .0 -.4 .2 -.2 .3 .6 -.4
\n Services less energy
\n services………….. .5 .4 .4 .3 .0 .2 .4 3.2
\n Shelter…………….. .4 .3 .5 .4 .2 .4 .5 3.5
\n Transportation services 2.9 1.5 1.5 -1.1 -2.3 -.5 .4 4.5
\n Medical care services… .0 -.1 .0 .3 .3 -.1 .5 1.7<\/p>\n
1 Not seasonally adjusted.<\/p>\n
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in October after increasing 0.2 percent in September. Most component indexes increased over the month. Along with shelter, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for medical care, for household furnishing and operations, and for recreation all increased in October. The indexes for airline fares and for alcoholic beverages were among the few to decline over the month. <\/p>\n
The all items index rose 6.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1990. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.6 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending August 1991. The energy index rose 30.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 5.3 percent.<\/p>\n
Food<\/p>\n
The food index increased 0.9 percent in October, the same increase as in September.
\nThe food at home index increased 1.0 percent over the month as all six major grocery
\nstore food group indexes continued to rise. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and
\neggs continued to rise sharply, increasing 1.7 percent following a 2.2-percent
\nincrease in September. The index for beef rose 3.1 percent over the month. <\/p>\n
The index for other food at home rose 1.2 percent over the month, its largest monthly
\nincrease since April 2020, near the onset of the pandemic. The index for cereals and
\nbakery products rose 1.0 percent in October following a 1.1-percent increase the prior
\nmonth. The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.8 percent in October, the index for
\ndairy and related products rose 0.2 percent, and the index for fruits and vegetables
\nadvanced 0.1 percent. <\/p>\n
The food away from home index rose 0.8 percent in October after increasing 0.5 percent
\nin September. The index for full service meals rose 0.9 percent and the index for
\nlimited service meals increased 0.8 percent over the month. <\/p>\n
The food at home index rose 5.4 percent over the past 12 months as all of the six
\nmajor grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The index for meats,
\npoultry, fish, and eggs increased 11.9 percent, with the index for beef rising
\n20.1 percent and the index for pork rising 14.1 percent, its largest 12-month
\nincrease since the period ending December 1990. The other major grocery store food
\ngroup indexes also increased over the last 12 months with increases ranging from
\n1.8 percent (dairy and related products) to 4.5 percent (nonalcoholic beverages). <\/p>\n
The index for food away from home rose 5.3 percent over the last year. The index for
\nlimited service meals rose 7.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full
\nservice meals rose 5.9 percent, both the largest 12-month increases in the history of
\nthe respective series. The index for food at employee sites and schools declined
\nsharply over the past year, falling 45.4 percent.<\/p>\n
Energy<\/p>\n
The energy index rose 4.8 percent in October after rising 1.3 percent in September.
\nThe gasoline index rose 6.1 percent in October, its fifth consecutive monthly increase.
\n(Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 3.7 percent in October.) The index
\nfor natural gas rose 6.6 percent over the month, its largest monthly increase since
\nMarch 2014. The electricity index increased 1.8 percent in October, its largest 1-month
\nincrease since May 2014, while the fuel oil index also rose sharply, increasing
\n12.3 percent.<\/p>\n
The energy index rose 30.0 percent over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month
\nincrease since the period ending September 2005. All the major energy component
\nindexes increased sharply over the last 12 months. The gasoline index rose
\n49.6 percent over the last year, and is now at its highest level since September 2014.
\nThe fuel oil index increased sharply over the year, rising 59.1 percent. The index for
\nnatural gas rose 28.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the electricity index rose
\n6.5 percent.<\/p>\n
All items less food and energy<\/p>\n
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in October as most major
\ncomponent indexes increased. The shelter index increased 0.5 percent over the month,
\nas the indexes for rent and owners\u2019 equivalent rent both rose 0.4 percent and the
\nindex for lodging away from home increased 1.4 percent. Major vehicle indexes also
\nrose in October. The index for used cars and trucks rose 2.5 percent after declining
\nin August and September. The index for new vehicles rose 1.4 percent in October, its
\nseventh consecutive monthly increase. <\/p>\n
The medical care index increased in October, rising 0.5 percent, its largest monthly
\nincrease since May 2020. The index for hospital services rose 0.5 percent, and the
\nindex for prescription drugs advanced 0.6 percent; the index for physicians\u2019 services
\nwas unchanged. The household furnishings and operations index rose 0.8 percent, and the
\nrecreation index increased 0.7 percent. Also rising in October were the indexes for
\npersonal care (0.6 percent), tobacco (1.9 percent), education (0.2 percent), and
\ncommunication (0.1 percent).<\/p>\n
The motor vehicle insurance index and the apparel index were both unchanged in October.
\nThe index for airline fares was one of the few to decline, falling 0.7 percent; the
\nindex for alcoholic beverages decreased 0.2 percent. <\/p>\n
The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.6 percent over the past 12 months.
\nComponent indexes rising more include used cars and trucks (26.4 percent) and new
\nvehicles (9.8 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1975).
\nIndexes rising less than 4.6 percent include shelter (3.5 percent) and medical care
\n(1.3 percent). Few major component indexes declined over the past year; one exception
\nis airline fares (-4.6 percent). <\/p>\n
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures<\/p>\n
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 6.2 percent over
\nthe last 12 months to an index level of 276.589 (1982-84=100). For the month, the
\nindex increased 0.8 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. <\/p>\n
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased
\n6.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 271.552 (1982-84=100). For
\nthe month, the index rose 0.9 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. <\/p>\n
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased
\n6.1 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.8 percent on
\na not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to
\n12 months are subject to revision.
\n_______________
\nThe Consumer Price Index for November 2021 is scheduled to be released on Friday,
\nDecember 10, 2021 at 8:30 a.m. (ET).<\/p>\n
————————————————————————————————–
\n Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on October 2021 Consumer Price Index Data<\/p>\n
Data collection by personal visit for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) program has been suspended
\n almost entirely since March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit
\n were collected either online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in October was affected by
\n the temporary closing or limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors
\n resulted in an increase in the number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed.
\n While the CPI program attempted to collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on
\n smaller amounts of collected prices than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally
\n published were not published this month. Additional information is available at
\n www.bls.gov\/covid19\/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-consumer-price-index.htm.<\/p>\n
—————————————————————————————————-<\/p>\n
Technical Note<\/p>\n
Brief Explanation of the CPI<\/p>\n
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers
\nfor goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two
\npopulation groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical
\nworkers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total
\nU.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban
\nor metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor,
\nthe unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical
\nworkers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in
\nrural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and
\nthose in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation
\nfor all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price
\nIndex for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for
\nAll Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).<\/p>\n
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
\nis based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition
\nthat meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household’s income must
\ncome from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household’s
\nearners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous
\n12 months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S.
\npopulation and is a subset of the CPI-U population.<\/p>\n
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation,
\ndoctors\u2019 and dentists\u2019 services, drugs, and other goods and services that people
\nbuy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas
\nacross the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail
\nestablishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and
\nother types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated
\nwith the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and
\na few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most
\nother commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest
\ngeographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and
\nservices are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls by the Bureau\u2019s
\ntrained representatives.<\/p>\n
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location
\nare aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending
\nof the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a
\nU.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published
\nby size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions
\nand population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not
\nmeasure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the
\naverage change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U,
\ndata are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered
\nfinal when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject
\nto three subsequent quarterly revisions.<\/p>\n
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the
\nCPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference
\nbase for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 7 percent from
\nthe reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that
\nrelationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket
\nof goods and services rising from $100 to $107. <\/p>\n
Sampling Error in the CPI<\/p>\n
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it
\nis based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all
\nprices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month,
\nand 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard
\nerror estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis
\ntesting. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change
\nis 0.03 percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample
\nfrom the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a
\npercentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be within
\n0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices. For
\nexample, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are
\n95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would
\nfall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on
\nhow to use the estimates of standard error, see
\nhttps:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/tables\/variance-estimates\/home.htm.<\/p>\n
Calculating Index Changes<\/p>\n
Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent
\nchanges rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are
\naffected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while percent
\nchanges are not. The following table shows an example of using index values to
\ncalculate percent changes:<\/p>\n
Item A Item B Item C
\nYear I 112.500 225.000 110.000
\nYear II 121.500 243.000 128.000
\nChange in index points 9.000 18.000 18.000
\nPercent change 9.0\/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0\/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0\/110.000 x 100 = 16.4<\/p>\n
Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data<\/p>\n
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
\nSeasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-
\nSEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new
\nfactors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The
\nfactors are available at
\nwww.bls.gov\/cpi\/tables\/seasonal-adjustment\/seasonal-factors-2021.xlsx. For more
\ninformation on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal
\nAdjustment at www.bls.gov\/cpi\/seasonal-adjustment\/questions-and-answers.htm and
\nthe Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at
\nwww.bls.gov\/cpi\/seasonal-adjustment\/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.<\/p>\n
For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are
\nusually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at
\nthe same time and in about the same magnitude every year\u2014such as price movements
\nresulting from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and
\nsales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time
\nof year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about
\nthe prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation
\npurposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example,
\ntie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal
\nvariation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation
\nagreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.<\/p>\n
Intervention Analysis<\/p>\n
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some
\nCPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying
\nseasonal pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process
\nby which the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from
\nthe data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which
\nmore accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.<\/p>\n
For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of
\nthe 2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008.
\nRetaining this outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the
\ncomputation of the seasonal portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was
\nestimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that,
\nseasonal factors were calculated based on this \u201cprior adjusted\u201d data. These seasonal
\nfactors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step
\nis for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.<\/p>\n
For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2021, BLS adjusted 72 series using
\nintervention analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items,
\nmotor fuels, electricity, and vehicles.<\/p>\n
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes<\/p>\n
Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are
\nsubject to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists
\nin the CPI calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to
\nthe last 5 years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are
\nconsidered to be final and not subject to revision. For January 2021, revised seasonal
\nfactors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2016 to 2020 were calculated and published.
\nFor series which are directly adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment
\nsoftware, the seasonal factors for 2020 will be applied to data for 2021 to produce the
\nseasonally adjusted 2021 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by
\nsumming seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and
\nare therefore not available in advance.<\/p>\n
Determining Seasonal Status<\/p>\n
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical
\ncriteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its
\nstatus from “not seasonally adjusted” to “seasonally adjusted”, or vice versa. If any of
\nthe 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment
\nstatus from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data
\nwill be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the
\nseasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. Thirty-four of the
\n81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2021.<\/p>\n
Contact Information<\/p>\n
For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov\/cpi or contact the CPI
\nInformation and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.<\/p>\n
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit
\nwww.bls.gov\/cpi\/seasonal-adjustment\/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section
\nat 202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.<\/p>\n
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon
\nrequest. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339. <\/p>\n