Hamden, CT…Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are locking in their lead among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 29 percent, while U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida trails with 15 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 7 percent, with no other candidate above New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie’s 4 percent. This compares to the results of a December 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 28 percent, with 27 percent for Cruz, 14 percent for Rubio and 10 percent for Carson.

Today, 5 percent are undecided, but 46 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Trump tops Cruz almost 4-1 on the negative list as 26 percent of Iowa Republican Caucus-goers say they “would definitely not support” Trump, with 7 percent who would not support Cruz.

The biggest loser today is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who gets only 3 percent support from Republicans, while 26 percent say they “would definitely not support” him.

“The Iowa Republican Caucuses are tight as a tick entering the final two weeks of the campaign. Voters like Sen. Ted Cruz better than Donald Trump and give him much higher scores for honesty, empathy, experience and for sharing their values,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“But they see the New York businessman as better able to handle some key issues. Trump is way ahead on handling the economy and terrorism.”

“The imbalance in perceived personal qualities may give Cruz a higher ceiling, a key metric entering the home stretch. Only 7 percent of Republicans say they could never vote for Cruz, while 26 percent say no way to Trump,” Brown added.

The economy and jobs is the most important issue for 27 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in deciding their vote, as 18 percent list terrorism; 16 percent say foreign policy. Another 10 percent cite the federal deficit and 8 percent list immigration.

This reverses the results of the December 14 survey, in which 30 percent listed terrorism as the most important issue, with 21 percent focused on the economy and jobs.

Trump can best handle the economy, 46 percent of Republicans say, with 16 percent picking Cruz and 8 percent picking Rubio. Trump is also best handling terrorism, 36 percent of GOP Caucus participants say, with 26 percent for Cruz and 12 percent for Rubio.

Cruz is best on foreign policy, 27 percent of Republicans say, with 24 percent for Trump and 18 percent for Rubio. Trump is best on illegal immigration, 46 percent of GOP Caucus- goers say, with 22 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.

Cruz has a 75 – 17 percent favorability rating, with Trump at 61 – 34 percent. Republican Caucus participants give Cruz better grades than Trump on most character issues:
81 – 13 percent that Cruz is honest and trustworthy, compared to 63 – 32 percent for Trump;
81 – 17 percent that Trump has strong leadership qualities, with Cruz at 78 – 16 percent;
81 – 14 percent that Cruz cares about their needs and problems, with 64 – 29 percent for Trump;
76 – 18 percent that Cruz has the right kind of experience to be president, with Trump at 54 – 40 percent;
75 – 17 percent that Cruz shares their values, with 53 – 41 percent for Trump.
Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election, 69 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, while 65 percent say Trump has a good chance of winning.

From January 5 – 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 602 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 3% 1% 2% 1% 4% 4% 2% 4% 1% 4%
Carson 7 3 8 8 8 5 7 7 8 6
Christie 4 – 3 2 4 7 3 4 5 3
Cruz 29 49 34 44 28 7 29 28 30 27
Fiorina 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1
Gilmore – – – – – – – – – –
Huckabee 3 4 5 4 – 4 2 3 3 3
Kasich 2 – 1 1 – 5 1 2 3 1
Paul 2 2 1 1 2 4 3 1 3 2
Rubio 15 5 13 11 15 21 15 14 17 13
Santorum 1 – 1 – 1 1 1 1 1 1
Trump 31 27 27 26 31 37 33 26 23 35
DK/NA 5 5 5 3 7 4 2 8 5 4

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q15………..
ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME Economy/ Foreign
<50K 50-100 >100K Jobs Terrorism Policy

Bush 6% 3% 2% 1% 2% 6%
Carson 6 8 7 5 7 11
Christie – 3 9 4 4 10
Cruz 26 38 22 26 30 24
Fiorina 2 1 – 2 1 –
Gilmore – – – – – –
Huckabee 6 1 1 – 2 –
Kasich 1 2 2 2 – 4
Paul 4 2 1 4 – –
Rubio 10 10 27 19 16 23
Santorum 1 – 1 1 – 1
Trump 37 29 26 32 33 22
DK/NA 3 4 2 4 5 –

MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q34………………. CAUCUS ATTENDQ5
Shares Strong Honest/ BestChance First Previous
Values Leader Trustworthy OfWinning Caucus Caucus

Bush 2% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3%
Carson 11 4 9 6 9 6
Christie – 5 4 6 3 4
Cruz 39 23 40 28 26 29
Fiorina 2 1 1 1 1 1
Gilmore – – – – – –
Huckabee 4 1 2 1 2 3
Kasich 1 1 – 2 – 2
Paul 5 – 4 2 2 2
Rubio 14 13 12 26 18 13
Santorum – 1 1 1 – 1
Trump 20 40 23 25 34 29
DK/NA 1 8 3 2 1 6

1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS………….
CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1……………..
CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
Tot Cruz Trump

Made up 52% 55% 61%
Might change 46 42 38
DK/NA 1 2 1

2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 26% 41% 24% 29% 29% 17% 28% 23% 27% 25%
Carson 9 7 5 7 9 12 8 11 12 8
Christie 15 23 17 17 19 9 16 14 16 15
Cruz 7 3 3 2 5 16 6 9 12 5
Fiorina 11 12 11 9 15 9 11 10 13 9
Gilmore 11 14 11 11 15 6 12 9 17 7
Huckabee 10 12 7 9 10 11 10 9 12 9
Kasich 14 20 20 18 16 7 15 13 18 12
Paul 13 16 15 15 15 8 12 15 17 10
Rubio 9 12 8 9 9 10 10 9 11 9
Santorum 10 12 9 9 12 9 9 11 14 8
Trump 26 19 26 27 19 34 24 29 31 24
No/No one 27 32 29 25 32 27 30 23 23 30
DK/NA 8 5 11 9 9 3 6 11 6 8

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Bush 28% 27% 23%
Carson 7 8 13
Christie 14 19 14
Cruz 7 6 11
Fiorina 8 13 11
Gilmore 5 14 13
Huckabee 6 11 13
Kasich 11 17 15
Paul 11 14 12
Rubio 10 8 12
Santorum 6 13 9
Trump 26 25 29
No/No one 29 28 28
DK/NA 7 7 3

4. Compared to past presidential caucuses in Iowa, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about attending this year’s presidential caucus on February first; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

More 52% 69% 59% 61% 50% 44% 53% 50% 42% 57%
Less 5 2 5 5 3 9 3 8 7 4
About the same 40 26 35 31 46 44 40 41 50 35
DK/NA 3 3 1 3 1 3 4 1 2 3

CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1…
ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
<50K 50-100 >100K Cruz Trump

More 56% 54% 44% 57% 66%
Less 5 4 8 2 –
About the same 36 41 42 40 32
DK/NA 2 1 6 1 1

5. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Attended previous 70% 81% 69% 75% 67% 65% 67% 75% 81% 63%
First caucus 30 19 31 25 33 35 33 25 19 36
DK/NA – – – – – – 1 – – 1

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Attended previous 66% 73% 70%
First caucus 34 27 30
DK/NA – – –

Q6-14. Summary Table – Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable – Unfavorable).
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS………..
Hvn’t
Fav Unfav hrdEn REF NetFav

Cruz 75 17 7 – 58
Carson 67 22 9 2 45
Rubio 67 22 8 2 45
Fiorina 52 21 26 – 31
Trump 61 34 2 2 27
Christie 44 38 16 2 6
Paul 40 39 18 2 1
Kasich 23 34 42 1 -11
Bush 33 56 9 2 -23

6. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 33% 21% 31% 28% 38% 36% 28% 42% 42% 29%
Unfavorable 56 72 53 63 55 48 61 48 52 58
Hvn’t hrd enough 9 5 14 7 6 16 9 9 5 11
REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 – 2 1 1 2

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 38% 25% 34%
Unfavorable 52 65 55
Hvn’t hrd enough 10 9 10
REFUSED – 1 1

7. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 67% 87% 77% 79% 67% 53% 67% 66% 70% 65%
Unfavorable 22 9 13 15 21 33 23 21 22 22
Hvn’t hrd enough 9 3 9 5 9 14 9 11 6 11
REFUSED 2 1 – 2 3 1 1 2 1 2

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 65% 70% 65%
Unfavorable 20 23 24
Hvn’t hrd enough 13 5 10
REFUSED 2 3 1

8. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 44% 40% 41% 38% 44% 52% 39% 51% 53% 39%
Unfavorable 38 48 37 43 38 32 44 29 34 40
Hvn’t hrd enough 16 9 21 17 17 15 14 19 13 19
REFUSED 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 37% 42% 53%
Unfavorable 38 44 35
Hvn’t hrd enough 24 12 11
REFUSED 1 2 –

9. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 75% 91% 81% 89% 80% 49% 81% 65% 74% 76%
Unfavorable 17 6 10 7 14 37 13 25 20 16
Hvn’t hrd enough 7 3 9 3 5 13 6 9 5 8
REFUSED – – 1 – 1 – – – 1 –

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 68% 84% 72%
Unfavorable 20 12 23
Hvn’t hrd enough 12 4 4
REFUSED – 1 –

10. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 52% 69% 51% 58% 57% 41% 50% 56% 63% 46%
Unfavorable 21 15 19 19 22 24 25 16 22 21
Hvn’t hrd enough 26 16 29 22 21 34 25 28 15 33
REFUSED – – 1 1 – – – – – 1

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 47% 52% 56%
Unfavorable 18 27 17
Hvn’t hrd enough 34 21 26
REFUSED 1 – –

11. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 23% 21% 18% 17% 26% 27% 22% 24% 32% 18%
Unfavorable 34 49 37 46 36 17 39 27 32 34
Hvn’t hrd enough 42 30 44 35 38 55 38 48 34 47
REFUSED 1 – 1 2 – – 1 1 2 1

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 18% 19% 30%
Unfavorable 32 40 30
Hvn’t hrd enough 50 40 38
REFUSED – 1 2

12. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 40% 51% 35% 48% 37% 32% 45% 32% 41% 39%
Unfavorable 39 38 40 37 45 35 37 44 39 40
Hvn’t hrd enough 18 10 22 12 16 32 16 22 17 19
REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 2

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 35% 43% 45%
Unfavorable 39 40 38
Hvn’t hrd enough 24 14 16
REFUSED 1 3 2

13. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 67% 66% 70% 71% 70% 63% 66% 70% 74% 65%
Unfavorable 22 25 19 21 20 29 24 19 18 24
Hvn’t hrd enough 8 5 9 6 10 8 7 11 7 9
REFUSED 2 4 2 3 1 – 2 1 1 2

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 59% 69% 79%
Unfavorable 26 24 17
Hvn’t hrd enough 14 6 4
REFUSED 1 2 1

14. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Favorable 61% 75% 62% 64% 66% 51% 65% 54% 56% 64%
Unfavorable 34 21 32 31 30 45 29 42 38 31
Hvn’t hrd enough 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 2
REFUSED 2 2 4 3 1 1 3 2 2 3

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Favorable 62% 63% 57%
Unfavorable 33 32 41
Hvn’t hrd enough 2 3 2
REFUSED 3 3 1

15. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Economy and jobs 27% 22% 23% 21% 30% 34% 28% 26% 32% 25%
Terrorism 18 19 22 22 18 14 15 23 18 18
Immigration 8 8 7 8 6 8 6 10 5 8
Federal deficit 10 13 9 7 10 11 12 6 11 9
Health care 3 3 3 1 5 3 3 2 3 3
Foreign policy 16 10 14 18 14 16 15 16 16 16
Climate change – – – – – 1 – – – –
Race relations – – – – – – – – – –
Abortion 4 8 7 8 1 1 3 4 6 3
Taxes 4 5 5 4 2 5 4 3 4 4
Gun policy 7 6 6 6 8 7 7 6 3 9
DK/NA 5 7 5 5 4 – 6 3 2 6

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Economy and jobs 26% 30% 31%
Terrorism 20 17 15
Immigration 6 9 5
Federal deficit 10 7 12
Health care 3 4 3
Foreign policy 14 18 18
Climate change – – 1
Race relations – – –
Abortion 4 3 4
Taxes 4 2 5
Gun policy 8 8 3
DK/NA 4 4 2

16. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle – the economy?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 5% 2% 4% 2% 5% 9% 3% 7% 5% 5%
Carson 3 – 4 4 3 1 3 2 3 3
Christie 2 1 2 – 2 7 1 4 3 2
Cruz 16 20 20 23 12 9 16 16 16 15
Fiorina 3 2 3 2 4 3 2 5 6 2
Gilmore – – – – – – – – – –
Huckabee 1 1 2 1 – 2 1 1 1 1
Kasich 3 – 1 2 2 6 2 4 5 1
Paul 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 2 4 2
Rubio 8 5 6 6 6 13 7 10 9 7
Santorum – – – – 1 – – – – –
Trump 46 62 42 48 53 37 52 37 45 47
DK/NA 10 4 14 10 10 10 8 14 5 14

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Bush 5% 3% 7%
Carson 2 4 3
Christie 1 2 6
Cruz 18 19 11
Fiorina 4 3 3
Gilmore – – –
Huckabee 2 1 –
Kasich 1 4 4
Paul 4 3 2
Rubio 8 5 13
Santorum – – –
Trump 43 51 45
DK/NA 13 7 7

17. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle – foreign policy?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 9% 2% 6% 4% 7% 16% 7% 11% 10% 8%
Carson 2 2 3 2 4 1 2 2 2 3
Christie 3 – 2 1 4 5 2 5 4 3
Cruz 27 48 30 40 25 11 26 28 30 25
Fiorina 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1
Gilmore – – – – – – – – – –
Huckabee 1 2 2 2 – – 1 1 2 –
Kasich 1 – 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 1
Paul 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 1 2 4
Rubio 18 10 18 18 20 18 20 15 23 16
Santorum – – – – 1 – – – 1 –
Trump 24 24 23 20 25 30 28 18 14 30
DK/NA 9 6 12 9 8 9 7 13 8 10

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Bush 7% 9% 11%
Carson 3 2 2
Christie 2 2 6
Cruz 19 36 27
Fiorina 2 – 2
Gilmore – – –
Huckabee – 2 –
Kasich 1 1 2
Paul 4 4 2
Rubio 10 22 26
Santorum – 1 –
Trump 37 20 17
DK/NA 13 2 6

18. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle – illegal immigration?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 3% – – 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Carson 2 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 3 2
Christie 2 – 2 – – 6 1 2 2 2
Cruz 22 32 25 33 20 9 21 22 23 20
Fiorina – – – – – – – – – –
Gilmore – – – – – – – – – –
Huckabee – 1 – 1 – – 1 – 1 –
Kasich 1 – 1 1 – 1 – 1 1 –
Paul 1 3 1 2 – 2 2 1 1 1
Rubio 15 5 10 9 17 25 14 18 19 13
Santorum – – 1 – 1 1 1 – 1 –
Trump 46 53 47 46 50 44 51 39 39 50
DK/NA 7 5 10 6 7 6 6 10 8 7

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Bush 3% 2% 2%
Carson 3 2 2
Christie 1 1 5
Cruz 23 23 21
Fiorina – – –
Gilmore – – –
Huckabee 1 – –
Kasich – 1 1
Paul 1 3 1
Rubio 10 14 27
Santorum – – 1
Trump 50 48 36
DK/NA 8 4 5

19. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle – social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 2% 1% 2% – 4% 3% 3% 1% 4% 1%
Carson 11 12 14 15 9 9 10 13 14 10
Christie 4 2 2 1 5 8 4 4 5 3
Cruz 29 46 34 41 30 11 31 26 26 31
Fiorina 3 2 1 2 3 4 3 2 4 2
Gilmore – – – – – – – – – –
Huckabee 6 10 10 9 4 3 6 6 7 4
Kasich 1 2 – – – 5 1 1 2 1
Paul 3 3 2 1 4 5 4 3 3 3
Rubio 10 6 9 9 11 12 10 11 10 11
Santorum – – 1 1 – – – 1 1 –
Trump 14 9 10 12 13 19 15 12 10 17
DK/NA 15 7 15 8 17 21 12 19 14 16

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Bush 4% 1% 2%
Carson 12 12 9
Christie 1 4 7
Cruz 25 36 29
Fiorina 4 2 3
Gilmore – – –
Huckabee 7 6 4
Kasich – 2 2
Paul 4 4 4
Rubio 12 6 18
Santorum 1 – –
Trump 14 16 9
DK/NA 19 11 12

20. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle – taxes?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 4% 1% 5% 2% 3% 7% 3% 5% 4% 3%
Carson 4 5 4 3 7 2 3 5 6 3
Christie 3 – 2 – 2 7 2 4 3 2
Cruz 19 33 23 32 14 9 21 17 20 18
Fiorina 2 2 1 1 3 3 2 3 4 1
Gilmore – – – – – – – – – –
Huckabee 1 2 2 2 1 – 1 1 3 –
Kasich 2 1 1 2 2 4 3 2 4 2
Paul 5 7 4 5 4 5 6 3 6 4
Rubio 9 4 8 8 7 13 8 11 7 10
Santorum – – – – 1 1 1 – – –
Trump 36 41 31 32 42 35 38 32 32 39
DK/NA 15 4 17 12 15 14 13 18 11 17

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Bush 4% 4% 3%
Carson 1 4 5
Christie 2 1 7
Cruz 19 24 16
Fiorina 4 2 1
Gilmore – – –
Huckabee 1 2 –
Kasich 2 2 3
Paul 4 6 5
Rubio 6 9 15
Santorum – – 1
Trump 36 38 32
DK/NA 23 8 11

21. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle – terrorism?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Bush 5% – 4% 3% 4% 10% 5% 4% 7% 4%
Carson 1 1 1 – 2 – 1 1 1 1
Christie 5 2 4 4 4 8 3 8 6 4
Cruz 26 43 30 39 25 10 28 23 29 24
Fiorina – – – – – 1 1 – 1 –
Gilmore – – – – – – – – – –
Huckabee 1 1 1 1 – 1 – 1 1 –
Kasich 2 – 1 1 – 5 1 3 3 1
Paul 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1
Rubio 12 8 12 11 12 15 12 12 15 10
Santorum 1 – 1 – 1 1 1 – 1 1
Trump 36 36 33 33 37 39 38 32 25 41
DK/NA 11 7 11 7 14 9 9 14 9 12

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Bush 7% 3% 5%
Carson – 2 1
Christie 3 4 9
Cruz 23 34 24
Fiorina 1 – 1
Gilmore – – –
Huckabee – – 1
Kasich 1 2 2
Paul 1 2 1
Rubio 11 10 18
Santorum – 1 1
Trump 43 35 27
DK/NA 10 6 10

22. Would you say that – Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 63% 70% 57% 61% 65% 64% 66% 58% 53% 69%
No 32 25 32 34 28 33 31 34 40 27
DK/NA 5 5 10 6 7 3 4 8 6 5

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 64% 66% 59%
No 31 29 37
DK/NA 5 5 3

23. Would you say that – Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 81% 93% 89% 90% 84% 66% 83% 76% 80% 81%
No 13 4 6 5 9 28 12 14 12 13
DK/NA 7 3 5 5 8 6 5 10 8 6

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 78% 88% 81%
No 16 9 13
DK/NA 6 4 5

24. Would you say that – Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 81% 88% 85% 82% 80% 82% 82% 80% 81% 82%
No 17 9 14 17 18 16 16 18 17 16
DK/NA 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 80% 85% 80%
No 18 15 18
DK/NA 1 – 2

25. Would you say that – Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 78% 93% 88% 89% 84% 58% 78% 77% 77% 78%
No 16 6 9 9 10 33 15 18 17 16
DK/NA 6 1 3 2 5 9 7 5 6 6

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 75% 87% 73%
No 19 10 22
DK/NA 6 4 4

26. Would you say that – Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 64% 71% 66% 69% 68% 55% 70% 56% 60% 67%
No 29 23 26 25 26 38 26 36 32 27
DK/NA 6 6 7 5 6 7 5 9 8 5

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 64% 64% 67%
No 29 31 29
DK/NA 7 5 5

27. Would you say that – Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 81% 90% 89% 92% 84% 65% 85% 75% 82% 81%
No 14 5 8 5 11 28 12 17 14 14
DK/NA 5 5 4 3 5 6 3 8 5 5

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 79% 88% 79%
No 14 12 16
DK/NA 7 1 5

28. Would you say that – Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 54% 66% 57% 58% 57% 50% 59% 47% 56% 54%
No 40 31 38 37 38 47 35 48 40 40
DK/NA 6 4 5 5 5 3 6 5 5 6

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 57% 57% 50%
No 36 40 48
DK/NA 7 3 3

29. Would you say that – Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 76% 92% 80% 85% 75% 65% 80% 70% 75% 77%
No 18 4 11 8 20 30 15 22 20 16
DK/NA 6 4 9 7 5 5 6 7 5 7

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 70% 83% 78%
No 23 13 17
DK/NA 7 4 5

30. Would you say that – Donald Trump shares your values or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 53% 59% 49% 49% 59% 52% 54% 51% 46% 58%
No 41 34 44 44 36 44 40 43 47 37
DK/NA 6 8 7 7 5 4 6 7 7 5

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 54% 55% 50%
No 39 40 47
DK/NA 7 5 3

31. Would you say that – Ted Cruz shares your values or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 75% 96% 88% 87% 81% 52% 78% 70% 74% 76%
No 17 3 7 7 15 35 15 21 18 16
DK/NA 8 1 5 6 4 13 7 9 7 8

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 74% 84% 67%
No 17 12 24
DK/NA 10 4 9

32. Would you say that – Donald Trump would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 65% 82% 65% 70% 67% 58% 68% 61% 59% 69%
No 30 16 31 26 29 40 28 35 35 27
DK/NA 4 2 4 4 4 2 4 4 5 3

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 69% 67% 60%
No 27 29 37
DK/NA 4 3 3

33. Would you say that – Ted Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Yes 69% 86% 75% 81% 65% 56% 73% 62% 60% 74%
No 25 9 18 12 27 41 22 31 34 20
DK/NA 6 5 7 7 8 3 5 8 6 6

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Yes 68% 74% 67%
No 26 21 30
DK/NA 6 5 3

34. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Shares values 16% 17% 21% 20% 14% 10% 19% 10% 17% 15%
Cares needs/problems 10 5 13 6 11 16 9 13 7 13
Strong leadership 23 24 19 18 27 24 23 23 23 23
Honest/trustworthy 24 30 28 33 16 22 25 24 24 24
Right experience 7 5 6 4 6 13 6 7 7 7
Best chance/winning 17 15 12 16 23 12 15 20 21 15
DK/NA 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 3 2 4

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Shares values 17% 15% 14%
Cares needs/problems 15 10 6
Strong leadership 22 25 26
Honest/trustworthy 27 25 17
Right experience 8 5 8
Best chance/winning 8 18 28
DK/NA 3 3 1

35. Generally speaking, what type of candidate makes the best president someone who has served as a Governor of a state, someone who has served in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives, or someone who has never held an elected office?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS……………………………………..
Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No

Governor 39% 34% 37% 37% 40% 40% 37% 41% 47% 34%
U.S. Senate/House 20 15 23 24 16 18 20 20 15 23
Never held office 28 33 26 24 33 31 32 22 21 31
DK/NA 14 17 14 15 12 11 11 17 17 11

ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
<50K 50-100 >100K

Governor 29% 42% 47%
U.S. Senate/House 26 18 19
Never held office 28 31 25
DK/NA 16 9 9