Washington, DC…Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2018.

Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed
investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal
government spending, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected decelerations in PCE, residential fixed
investment, exports, and state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by
an upturn in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
decelerated.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $211.2 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $19.97
trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $253.5 billion (table 1 and
table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, the
same increase as in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased
2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent (appendix table A).

Personal Income (table 10)

Current-dollar personal income increased $182.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase
of $186.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Decelerations in personal interest income, rental income, and
nonfarm proprietors’ income were largely offset by accelerations in wages and salaries and in
government social benefits.

Personal current taxes decreased $40.1 billion in the first quarter compared with an increase of $50.1
billion in the fourth quarter.

Disposable personal income increased $222.1 billion, or 6.2 percent, in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of $136.3 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income
increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.

Personal saving was $462.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with $379.8 billion in the fourth
quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income —
was 3.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes provisions that impact the personal income statistics in the
National Income and Product Accounts. For more information, see the Technical Note.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data in the advance estimate is provided in
a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA’s Web site. A detailed “Key Source Data
and Assumptions” file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the
“Additional Information” section that follows.

Upcoming Comprehensive Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

BEA will release the results of the 15th comprehensive (or benchmark) update of the national
income and product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the second quarter 2018 “advance”
estimate on July 27, 2018. For more information, see the Technical Note. Details on the planned
statistical, definitional, and presentational changes are available in the April Survey of Current
Business article “Preview of the 2018 Comprehensive Update of the National Income and Product
Accounts.” An article in the September Survey will describe the estimates in detail. Revised NIPA
table stubs and news release stubs will be available in June.

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